🏴 Manchester United vs Roma 🇮🇹 — Prediction
Champions League · Matchday 4 · Tue, 03 Nov 2026, 21:00 CET · Old Trafford, Manchester
Win probability
- Expected goals
- 1.65 – 1.20
- Both teams score
- 57%
Why we called it
United are slight market favourites at Old Trafford. Roma are without goalkeeper Svilar (Gollini starts), Dybala, Koné and Pellegrini.
Full analysis
Probable line-ups
Absences
- Marcus Rashford — doubtful (hip)
- Lisandro Martínez — doubtful (thigh)
- Luke Shaw — doubtful (knock)
- Kobbie Mainoo — doubtful (knock)
- Mile Svilar — out (broken toe)
- Paulo Dybala — out
- Manu Koné — out
- Lorenzo Pellegrini — out (thigh)
Form
United have 3 points (4-0 v Sabah, then 0-2 at Atlético and 1-4 at Como). Roma have 4 (1-1 at Fenerbahçe, 3-4 v Real Madrid, 4-0 v Slovan) and are unbeaten in Serie A.
Context
United have lost two in a row in Europe. Roma played Udinese on 31 October, giving both sides a normal turnaround.
What's at stake
United need a home win to avoid dropping out of the top 24; Roma would move towards the top 16.
Betting market
United around +132, draw +295, Roma +170, with under 3.5 at -175. This roughly agrees with a narrow home edge.
From the model to the call
No statistical model for this competition. Market-implied ≈1.5–1.25; United +0.15 with Svilar out, Roma -0.05 without Dybala and Koné → 1.65–1.2.