🇫🇷 France vs Spain 🇪🇸 — Prediction
World Cup 2026 · Semi-final · Tue, 14 Jul 2026, 21:00 CEST · AT&T Stadium, Arlington
Why we called it
The final everyone wanted early: France have won all six games with Mbappé red-hot on eight goals and a settled XI (Maignan; Koundé, Upamecano, Saliba, Digne; Koné, Rabiot; Dembélé, Olise, Doué; Mbappé), with Tchouaméni still a groin doubt so Koné anchors. Spain reached their first semi since 2010 by edging Belgium 2-1 and boast the tournament's best defence (Simón; Porro, Cubarsí, Laporte, Cucurella; Rodri, Fabián Ruiz; Yamal, Olmo, Baena; Oyarzabal the makeshift No.9 and top scorer on four), with Nico Williams still easing back from an adductor strain. Bookmakers make France clear but not overwhelming favourites (-144 to advance, Spain +210, draw 9/4) with both-teams-to-score odds-on and echoes of last year's 5-4 Nations League thriller; per calibration I keep the French edge but, in a tight high-stakes semi between two strong defences, trim to a one-goal margin: 2-1, Mbappé and Dembélé for France, Oyarzabal keeping Spain alive.