🇩🇪 Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis 🇪🇸 — Prediction
Champions League · Matchday 4 · Wed, 04 Nov 2026, 21:00 CET · Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund
Win probability
- Expected goals
- 1.75 – 1.05
- Both teams score
- 54%
Why we called it
Dortmund are unbeaten in the Bundesliga and just drew 2-2 at Bayern with Guirassy scoring again. Betis are 3/3 in Europe but lose striker Cucho Hernández, so we have the home side edging an open game.
Full analysis
Probable line-ups
Absences
- Emre Can — out (ACL)
- Giannis Konstantelias — out (ACL)
- Konstantinos Karetsas — back from an ankle injury, came off the bench at Bayern
- Cucho Hernández — out (injury)
- Junior Firpo — out (muscle injury)
- Facundo Bernal — suspended in the league; his European status is unconfirmed
Form
Dortmund are 2W-1L in the UCL (3-2 v Villarreal, 0-1 at Bodø, 2-1 at Sabah) and unbeaten in seven league games, the latest a 2-2 at Bayern. Betis are 3/3 (3-2 at Lille, 3-2 v Porto, 1-0 v Feyenoord) and beat Málaga 2-1 on Saturday.
Context
Both sides played Saturday, so neither has a rest edge. Dortmund come off a morale-boosting late equaliser in Der Klassiker, and Pellegrini welcomes back Antony from illness.
What's at stake
Betis can close in on the top eight, and Dortmund need the win to climb into it.
Betting market
Dortmund around 1.70, Betis around 4.0, over 2.5 at 1.53: the market agrees with a home edge in an open game.
From the model to the call
No statistical model for this competition. De-margined odds give about 1.75-1.15; Cucho's absence takes 0.1 off Betis, for a final 1.75-1.05.