🇩🇪 RB Leipzig vs Manchester City 🏴 — Prediction
Champions League · Matchday 4 · Wed, 04 Nov 2026, 21:00 CET · Red Bull Arena, Leipzig
Win probability
- Expected goals
- 1.10 – 2.15
- Both teams score
- 59%
Why we called it
City are around 1.50 favourites and Haaland has scored in both his UCL starts. Leipzig have conceded four at Como and four in Madrid, but Nusa and Gruda keep them dangerous at home.
Full analysis
Probable line-ups
Absences
- Assan Ouédraogo — out (serious injury)
- Christoph Baumgartner — back from injury, short of fitness
- Antoine Semenyo — out (knee)
- Jérémy Doku — back from injury
Form
Leipzig have 3 points (1-4 at Como, 1-0 v PSV, 1-4 at Madrid) and won 2-0 at Schalke on Saturday. City have 6 (2-0 at Porto, 2-4 v PSG, 5-1 v AEK) but lost 1-0 at home to Brighton with a rotated side after a midweek cup shoot-out.
Context
Maresca rotated against Brighton, so City's first XI should be fresh. Demichelis's Leipzig come off their first away league win of the season.
What's at stake
City want to stay in the top eight, and Leipzig need points to keep pace with the play-off places.
Betting market
City 1.47-1.53, draw 4.50, Leipzig 5.50: a clear away win, as we have it.
From the model to the call
No statistical model for this competition. Odds give about 1.1-2.2; Semenyo's absence takes 0.05 off City, for a final 1.1-2.15.