🇦🇷 Argentina vs Egypt 🇪🇬 — Prediction
World Cup 2026 · Round of 16 · Tue, 07 Jul 2026, 18:00 CEST · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Why we called it
Argentina have won 10 straight World Cup matches and Messi leads the tournament with six goals, but their underlying numbers are modest — they have not exceeded 1.7 non-penalty xG in any game and needed a nervy 3-2 to get past Cabo Verde. Egypt are at their best-ever World Cup, ground out a shootout win over Australia, and defend in a low block, but Salah is managing a hamstring strain and Marmoush has been dropped, capping their threat. Odds around -300 make Argentina a heavy favourite, yet Egypt are not leaky enough to justify a two-goal margin in a knockout, so I take a tight 1-0 with Lautaro preferred up front and Messi providing the decisive moment.