🇹🇷 Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool 🏴 — Prediction
Champions League · Matchday 4 · Wed, 04 Nov 2026, 18:45 CET · Ülker Stadium (Şükrü Saracoğlu), Istanbul
Win probability
- Expected goals
- 1.05 – 2.15
- Both teams score
- 58%
Why we called it
Fenerbahçe have lost Nathan Aké and Kojo Oppong at centre-back and just lost at home to Göztepe, while Liverpool are 3/3 and Isak has six goals in six league games. Kadıköy and Greenwood should still be worth a goal for the hosts.
Full analysis
Probable line-ups
Absences
- Nathan Aké — out (injury)
- Kojo Oppong — out (injured v Göztepe)
- Mert Müldür — out (injury)
- Marco Asensio — out (surgery)
- Dominik Szoboszlai — doubtful (hamstring, back in training)
- Victor Muñoz — doubtful
Form
Liverpool won all three UCL games (2-1 v Atlético, 6-3 at LASK, 4-3 v Villarreal) and beat Brentford and Brighton in the league. Fenerbahçe are still without a UCL win (1-1 v Roma, 0-6 at Villa, 2-2 v Slavia) and lost 2-1 at home to Göztepe at the weekend.
Context
Liverpool host Arsenal on Sunday, so they arrive with three days' rest after a heavy league game. Dirk Kuyt faces his former club on the Fenerbahçe bench, under pressure after the Göztepe defeat.
What's at stake
Liverpool can all but lock in a top-eight place, and Fenerbahçe need a first win to stay in play-off contention.
Betting market
Liverpool 1.57-1.69, draw 4.50, Fenerbahçe 5.00, over 2.5 at 1.50: an away win in an open game, as we have it.
From the model to the call
No statistical model for this competition. Odds give about 1.05-2.0; losing two centre-backs on the home side adds +0.15 for Liverpool, for a final 1.05-2.15.