🇪🇸 Celta Vigo vs Levante 🇪🇸 — Prediction
La Liga · Matchday 12 · Sun, 08 Nov 2026, 18:30 CET · Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo
Win probability
- Expected goals
- 1.60 – 1.02
- Both teams score
- 52%
Why we called it
Celta are rotating heavily after Thursday's Europa League game and are still without Borja Iglesias. But Levante concede almost two goals a game (21 in 11), so Celta should still win at home.
Full analysis
Probable line-ups
Absences
- Borja Iglesias — out (calf, until late November)
- Carl Starfelt — out (hamstring)
- Álvaro Núñez — out (adductor)
- Miguel Román — out (knee arthroscopy)
- Jones El-Abdellaoui — out (knee arthroscopy)
- Enzo Bardelli — doubtful (hamstring)
- Manu Sánchez — doubtful (hamstring)
Form
Celta (12 points, 10 scored and 10 conceded) lost 3-0 at Rayo after beating Alavés and drawing with Elche and Betis. Levante (18th, 10 points) lost 2-0 at home to Atlético after a 2-1 defeat at Real Sociedad.
Context
Celta hosted Union Saint-Gilloise in the Europa League on Thursday, and their coach Claudio Giráldez is expected to make many changes for a Sunday evening kickoff. Levante have had a full week to prepare.
What's at stake
Celta want to climb towards the top half, while Levante are fighting to get out of the bottom three.
Betting market
Celta 1.80, Levante 4.25; over 2.5 is 1.84. The market agrees with a home win.
From the model to the call
The model had 1.77 v 0.99. Celta drop to 1.60 for the Thursday game and expected rotation, with Borja Iglesias still out. Levante rise slightly to 1.02 against a changed side.