🇪🇸 Villarreal vs Getafe 🇪🇸 — Prediction
La Liga · Matchday 12 · Sun, 08 Nov 2026, 18:30 CET · Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal
Win probability
- Expected goals
- 1.57 – 0.69
- Both teams score
- 40%
Why we called it
Getafe have scored only 8 league goals all season. A Villarreal side shaken by a 6-0 Champions League loss to PSG should still edge a tight home game.
Full analysis
Probable line-ups
Absences
- Gerard Moreno — doubtful
- Juan Foyth — doubtful (muscular)
- Alassane Diatta — doubtful (muscular)
- Ilias Akhomach — doubtful
- Christantus Uche — out (ACL and meniscus)
- Juanmi Jiménez — out (knee)
- Zaid Romero — doubtful (quadriceps)
Form
Villarreal (12 points) have one win in four league games, losing 1-0 at home to Espanyol last time, and were beaten 6-0 at home by PSG on Tuesday. Getafe (12 points) beat Sevilla 3-1 after a 4-0 loss at Athletic. They have scored only 8 times in 11 league games.
Context
Villarreal have four days to recover from the PSG defeat, and confidence is low after successive home losses. Getafe are also playing in the Conference League this autumn.
What's at stake
Both sides are on 12 points. Villarreal need a reaction to stay in touch with the European places, and Getafe want to build on the Sevilla win.
Betting market
Villarreal 1.43, Getafe 7.10; the over 2.5 is 1.78. The market is more confident in the home win than the model but agrees on the favourite.
From the model to the call
The model's 1.57 v 0.69 is unchanged. Villarreal's poor morale is balanced by the market's backing, and their four attacking doubts are not confirmed absences.