🇪🇸 Sevilla vs Alavés 🇪🇸 — Prediction
La Liga · Matchday 12 · Sun, 08 Nov 2026, 00:00 CET · Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán, Seville
Win probability
- Expected goals
- 1.40 – 1.08
- Both teams score
- 50%
Why we called it
Alavés are seven games without a win and arrive off a 6-1 loss in Barcelona, so Sevilla stay favourites at home. But Sevilla are without Manu Bueno (suspended) and Peque (injured), and their leaky defence keeps Alavés in the game.
Full analysis
Probable line-ups
Absences
- Manu Bueno — suspended (straight red)
- Peque — out (hamstring)
- Miguel Sierra — out (shoulder, until January)
- Marcão — out (thigh)
- Isaac Romero — doubtful (knee)
- Youssouf Fofana — doubtful (knock against Getafe)
- Facundo Garcés — out (ACL)
- Mikel Rodríguez — out (ACL)
Form
Sevilla lost 3-1 at Getafe after beating Osasuna 2-0. They are sixth on 17 points but have conceded 19 goals and are the only side in the top six with a negative goal difference. Alavés (11th, 12 points) have drawn with Málaga and lost to Celta and Barcelona (6-1) in their last three.
Context
This is the Friday opener, so both sides have had a full week's rest. Alavés need a reaction after the heavy defeat at the Camp Nou, and Sevilla have won three of their five home league games.
What's at stake
Sevilla want to stay in the European places, while Alavés want to stop a winless run before they drift towards the bottom half.
Betting market
Sevilla 1.95, Alavés 4.03; under 2.5 is 1.66 against 2.17 for the over. The market agrees with the home lean but expects a tighter game than the model.
From the model to the call
The model had 1.48 v 1.14. Sevilla drop to 1.40 without Bueno and Peque and with Isaac Romero doubtful. Alavés drop to 1.08 for their seven-game winless run and low confidence.