🇪🇸 Málaga vs Racing Santander 🇪🇸 — Prediction
La Liga · Matchday 12 · Sun, 08 Nov 2026, 00:00 CET · La Rosaleda, Málaga
Win probability
- Expected goals
- 1.60 – 1.27
- Both teams score
- 58%
Why we called it
Bottom side Málaga (5 points) cannot afford to lose this home game against a direct rival. Racing have just lost winger Andrés Martín until the end of November, though Yassir Zabiri (8 goals) keeps them dangerous.
Full analysis
Probable line-ups
Absences
- Julen Lobete — out (ACL)
- Aarón Ochoa — out (meniscus)
- Pablo Martínez — doubtful (plantar fasciitis)
- Juan Cruz — doubtful (hamstring)
- Andrés Martín — out (hamstring, until late November)
- Álvaro Mantilla — out (ACL)
Form
Málaga are bottom with 5 points. They have drawn with Espanyol and Alavés and lost 5-2 to Real Sociedad and 2-1 at Betis. Racing (16th, 11 points) beat Espanyol 2-1, then lost 3-0 at home to Real Madrid.
Context
It is a Saturday lunchtime kickoff and neither side is in Europe. Málaga have taken two points from their last four games, and their home crowd will expect a reaction.
What's at stake
This is a relegation six-pointer: Málaga need to start closing a gap, and Racing want to keep the bottom three behind them.
Betting market
Málaga 2.38, Racing 2.79; over 2.5 is 1.65. The market sees a near coin-flip with goals, in line with the model.
From the model to the call
The model had 1.60 v 1.42. Málaga stay at 1.60. Racing drop to 1.27 because Andrés Martín, one of their main attacking outlets, is out.