🇪🇸 Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano 🇪🇸 — Prediction

La Liga · Matchday 12 · Sun, 08 Nov 2026, 16:15 CET · Reale Arena, San Sebastián

Our AI call, published before kickoff

GG2–1

Tipped scorers: Luka Sucic (Real Sociedad) · Mikel Oyarzabal (Real Sociedad) · Sergio Camello (Rayo Vallecano)

Win probability

50%

Real Sociedad

25%

Draw

26%

Rayo Vallecano

Expected goals: 1.75 – 1.20
Both teams score: 58%

How the crowd called it

Outcome called ✓ (score off)

Final result: 1–0 · Tipped scorers hit: 0/3

Goals: Orri Óskarsson (Real Sociedad, 67')

Why we called it

Real Sociedad have scored freely all season (20 in 11) and Rayo's defence is short of Luiz Felipe, with Kumbulla doubtful. La Real's poor defensive record and Sergio Camello's 7 goals mean Rayo should still score.

Full analysis

Probable line-ups

🇪🇸 Real Sociedad

4-2-3-1: Remiro; Aramburu, Jon Martín, Mamadou Sarr, Sergio Gómez; Gorrotxategi, Carlos Soler; Barrenetxea, Sucic, Guedes; Oyarzabal

🇪🇸 Rayo Vallecano

4-2-3-1: Audero; Ratiu, Lejeune, Mujaid Sadick, Pedrosa; Pathé Ciss, Unai López; De Frutos, Pedro Díaz, Tsitaishvili; Camello

Absences

🇪🇸 Real Sociedad

Álvaro Odriozola — out (ACL)

🇪🇸 Rayo Vallecano

Luiz Felipe — out (ACL)
Augusto Batalla — out (tibia fracture)
Álvaro García — out (hamstring)
Marash Kumbulla — doubtful
Óscar Valentín — doubtful (knee)

Form

Real Sociedad (5th, 19 points) lost the Basque derby 2-1 at Athletic after three straight wins, and have scored 20 and conceded 20. Rayo (12 points) bounced back from a 3-0 home loss to Elche by beating Celta 3-0.

Context

La Real played Lyon in the Europa League on Thursday and are expected to rotate a little with only two days in between. Rayo have had a full week.

What's at stake

Real Sociedad want to keep pace in the European places, while Rayo want to stay clear of the bottom half.

Betting market

Real Sociedad 1.66, Rayo 4.57; over 2.5 is 1.56. The market is slightly more confident in the home win than the model, and both expect goals.

From the model to the call

The model's 1.75 v 1.20 is close to unchanged. La Real's Thursday game and Rayo's missing defenders roughly cancel out, and Rayo lose a fraction for the absences in their back line.