🇪🇸 Osasuna vs Athletic Club 🇪🇸 — Prediction
La Liga · Matchday 12 · Sun, 08 Nov 2026, 00:00 CET · El Sadar, Pamplona
Win probability
- Expected goals
- 1.28 – 1.12
- Both teams score
- 49%
Why we called it
Athletic come in on two straight wins with Nico Williams available, while Osasuna have lost three of their last four and are still without Aimar Oroz. Our numbers still give El Sadar a slight edge in a low-scoring game where Ante Budimir (8 goals) is the main threat.
Full analysis
Probable line-ups
Absences
- Aimar Oroz — out (hamstring, until mid-November)
- Jorge Herrando — out (adductor)
- Romain Del Castillo — doubtful (adductor)
- Gorka Guruzeta — out (ACL)
- Maroan Sannadi — out (hamstring)
- Unai Egiluz — out (ACL)
- Nico Williams — available again after working apart
Form
Osasuna (15th, 11 points) lost 5-2 at Betis, beat Racing 2-0, then lost 2-0 at Sevilla and 2-1 at Deportivo. Athletic (7th, 15 points) lost 3-1 at Levante, then beat Getafe 4-0 and won the Basque derby 2-1 against Real Sociedad.
Context
Neither side is in Europe and both have had a normal week. Athletic are lifted by the derby win, while Osasuna have lost twice in a row.
What's at stake
Osasuna need points to climb away from the relegation places, and Athletic are pushing back towards the European places.
Betting market
Osasuna 3.55, Athletic 2.06; under 2.5 is 1.72. The market clearly favours Athletic, against the model's home lean, because of Athletic's form and Osasuna's poor run. Both see a low-scoring game.
From the model to the call
The model had 1.36 v 1.06. Osasuna drop to 1.28 for their form and Oroz's continued absence. Athletic rise to 1.12 with Nico Williams back and two straight wins.