🇪🇸 Valencia vs Real Madrid 🇪🇸 — Prediction
La Liga · Matchday 12 · Sun, 08 Nov 2026, 00:00 CET · Mestalla, Valencia
Win probability
- Expected goals
- 0.95 – 1.80
- Both teams score
- 52%
Why we called it
Real Madrid have won seven straight across all competitions since early October, including a 2-1 Clásico win and 3-2 at AEK on Wednesday, and Mbappé already has 12 league goals. Vinícius is suspended and Valencia sit 19th but have some goals in them, so the call is a narrow away win.
Full analysis
Probable line-ups
Absences
- Sergi Canós — out (ACL)
- Diego López — out (ACL)
- David Otorbi — out (hamstring)
- José Manuel Copete — doubtful (meniscus)
- Kayne van Oevelen — doubtful (knee sprain)
- Vinícius Júnior — suspended
- Rodrygo — out (ACL and meniscus)
- Raúl Asencio — out (tibia surgery)
- Tchouaméni, Arda Güler and Ferland Mendy — available after working apart
Form
Valencia (19th, 9 points) won 1-0 at Elche for their first win in five. Before that they drew 2-2 at Racing and 0-0 with Athletic, and lost 2-1 at home to Villarreal. Real Madrid (3rd, 27 points) beat Villarreal, Sevilla 4-1, Barcelona 2-1 away and Racing 3-0 away, and are four from four in the Champions League.
Context
Madrid played in Athens on Wednesday and have three days to recover, so some rotation is expected. Mestalla is a hostile ground for them, but Valencia are deep in a relegation fight.
What's at stake
Madrid are three points behind leaders Barcelona, who also play this weekend, while Valencia need points to get out of the bottom three.
Betting market
Valencia 8.50, Real Madrid 1.29; the over/under line is 3.5, with the under at 1.75. The market makes Madrid much bigger favourites than the model, based on their winning run and Valencia's crisis.
From the model to the call
The model had 1.01 v 1.81. Madrid lose about 0.15 without Vinícius and a little more for the short turnaround, but get most of it back for their seven-match winning run, ending at 1.80. Valencia dip to 0.95.