🇫🇷 Brest vs Lyon 🇫🇷 — Prediction
Ligue 1 · Matchday 10 · Sun, 08 Nov 2026, 17:15 CET · Stade Francis-Le Blé, Brest
Win probability
- Expected goals
- 1.22 – 1.42
- Both teams score
- 54%
Why we called it
Lyon have the second-best defence in the league (7 conceded) and remain the side to beat. But they play a Europa League game on Thursday, three days before this one, and miss Morton, Šulc and Openda. The market's 2.70 against 2.40 is much tighter than the model, so the gap narrows.
Full analysis
Probable line-ups
Absences
- Brendan Chardonnet — out (calf)
- Raphaël Le Guen — out (broken fibula)
- Morton — out
- Pavel Šulc — out (knee)
- Loïs Openda — out
- Mohamed Ouedraogo — out (knee)
- Kango — doubtful
Form
Brest are 10th on 12 points (16 scored, 12 conceded) and won 2-0 at Lorient on Monday, with Ajorque scoring again. Lyon are 3rd on 17 points after a 2-0 win over Angers, having lost only to Lens and PSG.
Context
Lyon play in the Europa League on Thursday, then face a Sunday-afternoon trip to Brittany, while Brest have a full week off after Monday's game. Lyon lost 3-0 at Hoffenheim on their last European trip.
What's at stake
Lyon want to stay on the podium in the race for the Champions League places, and Brest can close in on the top half's European spots.
Betting market
1X2 is Brest 2.70, draw 3.50, Lyon 2.40 (best prices). Lyon are still favourites, but by far less than the model's 46.5%.
From the model to the call
Model 1.17-1.59 → 1.22-1.42: Lyon lose 0.17 for the Thursday game three days earlier plus travel and for missing Morton and Openda. Brest gain 0.05 for the extra rest.