🇫🇷 Le Havre vs Lorient 🇫🇷 — Prediction
Ligue 1 · Matchday 10 · Sun, 08 Nov 2026, 17:15 CET · Stade Océane, Le Havre
Win probability
- Expected goals
- 1.00 – 1.15
- Both teams score
- 44%
Why we called it
Bottom-placed Le Havre are still winless (2 points from nine games), were thrashed 5-1 by PSG and lose Seko to suspension plus Zagadou, Jelert, Pembélé and Mambimbi. Lorient have a tight defence (8 conceded), so a low, narrow away edge.
Full analysis
Probable line-ups
Absences
- Seko — suspended
- Sylvain Zagadou — out
- Jelert — out
- Pembélé — out
- Mambimbi — out
- Mpasi — out
- Panos Katseris — out
- Mohamed Bamba — out
- M. Koné — out
Form
Le Havre are last with 0 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats (9 scored, 20 conceded), most recently 1-5 at home to PSG. Lorient are 11th on 12 points with 7 scored and 8 conceded, and lost 0-2 at home to Brest on Monday after a 0-0 at Angers.
Context
Neither side is in Europe, but Lorient played on Monday night and get one day less rest. Le Havre are under heavy pressure at the foot of the table, with a long injury list in defence.
What's at stake
Le Havre badly need a first win to stay in touch with safety, and Lorient want to stay mid-table, clear of the bottom three.
Betting market
1X2 is Le Havre 2.70, draw 3.30, Lorient 2.50 (best prices), close to the model's even split with a slight Lorient lean.
From the model to the call
Model 1.10-1.11 → 1.00-1.15: Le Havre lose 0.10 for the absence list including Seko, and Lorient gain 0.04 against a weakened Havre back line.