🇫🇷 Toulouse vs Strasbourg 🇫🇷 — Prediction

Ligue 1 · Matchday 10 · Fri, 06 Nov 2026, 20:45 CET · Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse

Our AI call, published before kickoff

GG2–1

Tipped scorers: Casper Tengstedt (Toulouse) · Jayden Russell-Rowe (Toulouse) · Gessime Yassine (Strasbourg)

Win probability

43%

Toulouse

24%

Draw

33%

Strasbourg

Expected goals: 1.75 – 1.50
Both teams score: 65%

How the crowd called it

Outcome called ✓ (score off)

Final result: 3–1 · Tipped scorers hit: 0/3

Goals: Santiago Hidalgo (Toulouse, 45') · Mark McKenzie (Toulouse, 56') · Giovanni Reyna (Strasbourg, 67') · Thomas Jørgensen (Toulouse, 76')

Why we called it

Toulouse are hard to beat at home, while Strasbourg have conceded 19 in nine games and are without Joaquín Panichelli. Strasbourg's 5-1 win over Auxerre keeps them dangerous, so both sides should score.

Full analysis

Probable line-ups

🇫🇷 Toulouse

4-4-2: Restes; Sigur, McKenzie, Nicolaisen, Tapé; Dønnum, Cásseres, Diallo, Jørgensen; Tengstedt, Russell-Rowe

🇫🇷 Strasbourg

4-2-3-1: Jørgensen; Høgsberg, Doukouré, Coulibaly, Oso; Essugo, El Mourabet; Yassine, Reyna, Godo; Harder

Absences

🇫🇷 Toulouse

Rafik Messali — out (ankle)
A. Francis — doubtful

🇫🇷 Strasbourg

Joaquín Panichelli — out
F. Baldé — out
Lepaul — doubtful
B. Samba — doubtful

Form

Toulouse (10 pts, 2W 4D 2L before Matchday 9) lost 2-0 at Marseille last time; before that they had draws at Monaco and Lorient, a 3-0 win at Le Mans and a 0-0 at home to Troyes. Strasbourg lost four league games in a row (Paris FC, Nice, PSG, Rennes) before beating ten-man Auxerre 5-1, with Gessime Yassine scoring twice.

Context

Neither side is in Europe, so both have a full week of rest before Friday night. Strasbourg's big win gives them confidence, but their defence has been the league's leakiest outside the bottom sides. Toulouse come off a defeat at the Vélodrome in which a Tengstedt goal was ruled out by VAR.

What's at stake

Both are mid-table, around 10 points, and the winner moves towards the top half while the loser drifts towards the relegation zone.

Betting market

Bookmakers and tipster models make Toulouse favourites at around 52% to win, against 40% in our model, mostly because of Strasbourg's poor defensive record.

From the model to the call

Model 1.71-1.63 → 1.75-1.50: Strasbourg lowered for Panichelli's absence and their weak away form, and Toulouse nudged up for a defence conceding only 11 in eight games.