🏴 Arsenal vs Hull City 🏴 — Prediction
Premier League · Matchday 10 · Sat, 07 Nov 2026, 16:00 CET · Emirates Stadium, London
Win probability
- Expected goals
- 1.50 – 0.66
- Both teams score
- 38%
Why we called it
Arsenal won 1-0 at Anfield and face a Hull side missing Crooks (suspended) and three midfielders. With Saka still out and a Wednesday trip to Prague, the edge is clear but the margin stays tight.
Full analysis
Probable line-ups
Absences
- Bukayo Saka — out (quad)
- William Saliba — doubtful (back in training after long layoff, start unlikely)
- Max Dowman — suspended
- Matt Crooks — suspended (fifth booking)
- Darko Gyabi — out
- Eliot Matazo — out (knee)
- Charlie Hughes — out
- Matt Targett — out
- Lucas Gourna-Douath — doubtful
- Ilyas Ansah — doubtful
- Jack Butland — doubtful
Form
Arsenal (2nd, level on points at the top) won 2-0 against Everton and 1-0 at Liverpool. Hull (11th, 11 points) have drawn five of nine, the latest 2-2 against Ipswich.
Context
Arsenal play Slavia Prague away on Wednesday, three days before this game, so some rotation is possible. Arteta is managing Saliba's return carefully.
What's at stake
Arsenal are in a two-way title race with Man City; Hull want to stay in mid-table.
Betting market
Previews give Arsenal about a 54% win chance with 1-0 the single likeliest score, in line with the model.
From the model to the call
Model 1.46-0.68 moved to 1.50-0.66: Hull's depleted midfield (Crooks, Gyabi, Matazo) outweighs Arsenal's midweek travel.