🏴 Crystal Palace vs Liverpool 🏴 — Prediction
Premier League · Matchday 10 · Sun, 08 Nov 2026, 15:00 CET · Selhurst Park, London
Win probability
- Expected goals
- 0.95 – 1.42
- Both teams score
- 47%
Why we called it
Palace lose their main striker Mateta to a three-match ban, which cuts their threat. Liverpool are without Gravenberch (heel fracture) and Ekitike after a trip to Fenerbahçe, so it points to a narrow away win.
Full analysis
Probable line-ups
Absences
- Jean-Philippe Mateta — suspended (three-match ban, appeal lodged)
- Chadi Riad — out
- Takehiro Tomiyasu — out
- Ismaïla Sarr — doubtful
- Jørgen Strand Larsen — doubtful (ankle)
- Ryan Gravenberch — doubtful (heel fracture)
- Hugo Ekitike — out
- Conor Bradley — out
- Jeremie Frimpong — out
- Giovanni Leoni — out
Form
Palace lost 2-0 at home to Newcastle and 2-0 at Tottenham. Liverpool beat Brighton 2-0 but lost 1-0 at home to Arsenal last weekend.
Context
Liverpool, under Andoni Iraola, play Fenerbahçe in Turkey midweek, which means long travel before a Sunday game. Palace have lost two in a row without scoring.
What's at stake
Liverpool need to keep pace with the top two; Palace want to stop a slide toward the bottom half.
Betting market
No reliable current odds found; the model already favoured Liverpool and Mateta's ban strengthens that.
From the model to the call
Model 1.20-1.52 moved to 0.95-1.42: -0.25 Palace without Mateta (with Sarr and Strand Larsen doubtful), -0.10 Liverpool for Gravenberch's absence and the midweek trip to Turkey.