🏴 Sunderland vs Chelsea 🏴 — Prediction
Premier League · Matchday 10 · Sun, 08 Nov 2026, 15:00 CET · Stadium of Light, Sunderland
Win probability
- Expected goals
- 1.33 – 1.43
- Both teams score
- 57%
Why we called it
Sunderland have lost both first-choice centre-backs, Alderete (suspended) and Ballard (injured), and play Dinamo Zagreb in the Europa League on Thursday. That tips a model coin-flip toward Chelsea, even without João Pedro.
Full analysis
Probable line-ups
Absences
- Omar Alderete — suspended (red card v Coventry)
- Dan Ballard — out
- Habib Diarra — out
- Romaine Mundle — out
- Nordi Mukiele — doubtful
- João Pedro — out (thigh)
- Reece James — out
- Jorrel Hato — doubtful
- Jordan Henderson — doubtful
Form
Sunderland lost 3-1 at Coventry and drew 0-0 with Leeds. Chelsea beat Manchester United 2-0 at Stamford Bridge after losing 2-0 to Tottenham.
Context
Sunderland host Dinamo Zagreb in the Europa League on Thursday, three days before this game. Chelsea, under Xabi Alonso, have their own European midweek but a deeper squad.
What's at stake
Sunderland want to bounce back and stay in the top half; Chelsea are chasing the top four.
Betting market
No reliable current odds found; the model has it almost even and the team news tilts it toward Chelsea.
From the model to the call
Model 1.47-1.43 moved to 1.33-1.43: Sunderland -0.14 for Thursday's Europa game and Diarra's absence; Chelsea +0.15 against a makeshift centre-back pair, offset by -0.15 without striker João Pedro.