🏴 Brighton vs Brentford 🏴 — Prediction
Premier League · Matchday 10 · Sun, 08 Nov 2026, 15:00 CET · American Express Stadium, Brighton
Win probability
- Expected goals
- 1.63 – 1.17
- Both teams score
- 56%
Why we called it
Brighton arrive buoyed by a 1-0 win at the Etihad (Ayari), though Mitoma and Ferguson are out. Brentford's Igor Thiago is in form after the 2-0 win over Forest, so both sides should score.
Full analysis
Probable line-ups
Absences
- Kaoru Mitoma — out
- Evan Ferguson — out
- Stefanos Tzimas — out
- Femi Azeez — out
- Ferdi Kadıoğlu — doubtful
- Pascal Struijk — doubtful
- Fábio Carvalho — out
- Rico Henry — out
- Kaye Furo — out
- Josh Dasilva — doubtful
- Antoni Milambo — doubtful
Form
Brighton lost 2-0 at Liverpool and then won 1-0 at Manchester City. Brentford drew 1-1 at Hull and beat Nottingham Forest 2-0.
Context
Neither side is in Europe, so both have had a full week of rest. Brighton's confidence is high after the win in Manchester.
What's at stake
Both sides are in the mid-table pack chasing the European places.
Betting market
No reliable current odds found; the model's home lean matches Brighton's form and home record.
From the model to the call
Model 1.68-1.17 moved to 1.63-1.17: -0.05 Brighton with Mitoma and Ferguson out of the attack.