🏴 Leeds vs Tottenham 🏴 — Prediction
Premier League · Matchday 10 · Sat, 07 Nov 2026, 13:30 CET · Elland Road, Leeds
Win probability
- Expected goals
- 1.52 – 1.05
- Both teams score
- 51%
Why we called it
Elland Road keeps Leeds in front, but De Zerbi's Spurs have won 2-0 at Chelsea and 2-0 against Palace in a row, and Leeds are missing centre-back Joe Rodon, so the gap narrows to one goal.
Full analysis
Probable line-ups
Absences
- Joe Rodon — out
- Mateo Joseph — out
- Noah Okafor — doubtful
- Gabriel Gudmundsson — doubtful
- James Justin — doubtful
- Xavi Simons — out
- Mykhailo Mudryk — out
- Savio — out
- Wilson Odobert — out
- Tosin Adarabioyo — doubtful (pencilled in to return)
- Lucas Bergvall — doubtful (pencilled in to return)
Form
Leeds drew 0-0 at Sunderland and lost 2-0 at Bournemouth in their last two. Tottenham won 2-0 at Chelsea and 2-0 at home to Crystal Palace.
Context
Calvert-Lewin was rested in Leeds' midweek Carabao Cup tie and returns fresh. Spurs travel north for a lunchtime kick-off after a European midweek and are in their best run of the season under De Zerbi.
What's at stake
Leeds need points to stay clear of the bottom three; Tottenham are trying to stay in the race for the European places.
Betting market
Supercomputer models give Leeds about 39-41% and Spurs 32-34%. That is closer than the model's 52/22, which reflects Spurs' recent form.
From the model to the call
Model 1.59-0.95 moved to 1.52-1.05: +0.10 Spurs for form and the expected return of Bergvall and Adarabioyo, -0.07 Leeds for Rodon's absence at the back.