🇩🇪 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen 🇩🇪 — Prediction
Bundesliga · Matchday 9 · Sun, 08 Nov 2026, 15:30 CET · RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne
Win probability
- Expected goals
- 1.25 – 1.90
- Both teams score
- 61%
Why we called it
Köln are missing strikers Dallinga and Rondić and centre-backs Hübers and van den Berg, which outweighs Leverkusen's two straight defeats and the Europa League game they play on Thursday.
Full analysis
Probable line-ups
Absences
- Timo Hübers — out (knee)
- Rav van den Berg — out (muscle)
- Ellyes Skhiri — out (syndesmosis tear)
- Thijs Dallinga — out (cruciate ligament)
- Imad Rondić — out (thigh muscle)
- Joël Schmied — doubtful (ankle)
- Doué — out (calf)
- Eichhorn — out (metabolic disorder)
- Ben Seghir — out (rehab)
- Martin Terrier — out (muscle)
- Diaby — out (fascia)
- Tella — doubtful (muscle)
Form
Köln are unbeaten in four home games (W3-2 Hoffenheim, D1-1 Bremen, W2-1 Gladbach, D0-0 Schalke) and drew 1-1 at Union last time. Leverkusen have lost two in a row (0-3 at Hoffenheim, 2-4 at home to Stuttgart) and sit 6th on 13 points.
Context
This is the Rhine derby. Leverkusen host Marseille in the Europa League on Thursday, three days before, and the previews expect rotation. Coach Carles Martínez said after the Stuttgart game that the scoreline was too heavy for how the game went.
What's at stake
Leverkusen need a win to stay in the European places after two defeats, and Köln want to keep their home record intact and stay clear of the bottom.
Betting market
We could not find current odds. Leverkusen should be away favourites, which agrees with the model.
From the model to the call
The model had 1.40–1.99. We took Köln down to 1.25 because their main strikers are out, and kept Leverkusen at 1.90: Köln's missing centre-backs push them up, and the Thursday European game pulls them back down.