🇩🇪 Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg 🇩🇪 — Prediction

Bundesliga · Matchday 9 · Sat, 07 Nov 2026, 15:30 CET · Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund

Our AI call, published before kickoff

12–1

Tipped scorers: Serhou Guirassy (Borussia Dortmund) · Maximilian Beier (Borussia Dortmund) · Maurice Krattenmacher (SV Elversberg)

Win probability

60%

Borussia Dortmund

22%

Draw

19%

SV Elversberg

Expected goals: 2.05 – 1.07
Both teams score: 58%

How the crowd called it

Exact score called ✓

Final result: 2–1 · Tipped scorers hit: 0/3

Goals: Felix Nmecha (Borussia Dortmund, 55') · Felix Nmecha (Borussia Dortmund, 71') · Noel Futkeu (SV Elversberg, 81')

Why we called it

Dortmund are second, unbeaten in five, and came back from a 2-2 at Bayern, so they are clear favourites at home. Elversberg arrive in form after a 4-1 win over Mainz, and Dortmund played Real Betis in the Champions League three days earlier, so both sides should score.

Full analysis

Probable line-ups

🇩🇪 Borussia Dortmund

3-4-2-1: Kobel; Gadou, Anton, Schlotterbeck; Ryerson, Veerman (or Sabitzer), Nmecha, Svensson; Bellingham, Beier; Guirassy

🇩🇪 SV Elversberg

4-2-3-1: Kristof; Sirch, Pinckert, Rohr, Günther; Keidel, Poręba; Petkov, Onyeka, Krattenmacher; Mokwa (Campbell an alternative)

Absences

🇩🇪 Borussia Dortmund

Emre Can — out (cruciate ligament)
Giannis Konstantelias — out (cruciate ligament)
Justin Lerma — out (muscle)
Kauã Prates — out (muscle)

🇩🇪 SV Elversberg

Jan Gyamerah — out (thigh)
Tom Zimmerschied — out (ankle ligament)
Luis Seifert — out (rehab)
Lukas Pinckert — doubtful (knock)

Form

Dortmund are second on 18 points with the joint-best defence (6 conceded in 8) and are unbeaten in five, the latest a 2-2 at Bayern. Elversberg beat Mainz 4-1 in their last league game, but they went out of the Pokal in midweek.

Context

Dortmund host Real Betis in the Champions League on Wednesday, so Kovač may rotate a little; Karetsas and Chukwuemeka are pushing for minutes. Elversberg have Günther cleared and are waiting on Pinckert after knocks in the cup exit.

What's at stake

Dortmund want to stay level with Bayern at the top. Newly promoted Elversberg want to build a cushion over the relegation places.

Betting market

A snippet suggests about 1.31 / 6.25 / 9.00, but it could not be confirmed against a bookmaker. If accurate, the market is more bullish on Dortmund than the model's 62%.

From the model to the call

Model 2.15-1.07 → 2.05-1.07: -0.10 to Dortmund for Wednesday's Champions League game. Elversberg's numbers are kept because their absences are mostly squad players.