🇩🇪 VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen 🇩🇪 — Prediction
Bundesliga · Matchday 9 · Sat, 07 Nov 2026, 18:30 CET · MHPArena, Stuttgart
Win probability
- Expected goals
- 2.25 – 1.05
- Both teams score
- 59%
Why we called it
Stuttgart come in on a 4-2 win at Leverkusen with Demirović in form and are clear home favourites, though Stiller's absence and Tuesday's trip to Galatasaray trim them slightly. In-form Bremen, led by Füllkrug, should still score.
Full analysis
Probable line-ups
Absences
- Angelo Stiller — out (adductor)
- Josha Vagnoman — out (injury)
- Leo Sauer — out (injury)
- Justin Diehl — out (long-term)
- Atakan Karazor — doubtful
- Mitchell Weiser — out
- Jens Stage — out (surgery)
- Felix Agu — out
- Skelly Alvero — out (calf)
- Salim Musah — out (long-term)
- Keke Topp — out (meniscus)
- Moussa Ndiaye — out (rehab)
Form
Stuttgart won 4-2 at Leverkusen with two goals from Demirović, and Undav's late goal put them into the Pokal quarter-finals. Bremen are fourth on 15 points and unbeaten in four, after a 3-2 win at Mainz and a 2-0 win over Hoffenheim, with Füllkrug scoring in both.
Context
Stuttgart played at Galatasaray in the Champions League on Tuesday, so they have four days to recover. Coach Thioune has Bremen confident, though they are missing Weiser and Stage.
What's at stake
Stuttgart want to keep climbing back towards the European places after a slow start. Bremen want to consolidate a place in the top four.
Betting market
No reliable current 1X2 or over/under line could be confirmed, so the model's 67% home win stands untested against the market.
From the model to the call
Model 2.37-1.03 → 2.25-1.05: -0.12 to Stuttgart for Stiller's absence, a doubt over Karazor and the midweek Champions League trip. Bremen are roughly unchanged, with Weiser out offset by their form.