🇩🇪 Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich 🇩🇪 — Prediction
Bundesliga · Matchday 9 · Sat, 07 Nov 2026, 15:30 CET · MEWA Arena, Mainz
Win probability
- Expected goals
- 1.20 – 2.50
- Both teams score
- 65%
Why we called it
Bayern lead the league but have lost Gnabry, Saibari, Díaz and Musiala and played at Atlético Madrid on Tuesday, which trims their attack. Mainz have conceded seven in two defeats and are without the suspended Posch and Mwene.
Full analysis
Probable line-ups
Absences
- Stefan Posch — suspended (yellow-red card)
- Phillipp Mwene — suspended (fifth yellow card)
- Dominik Kohr — out (surgery)
- Nadiem Amiri — doubtful
- Serge Gnabry — out (thigh muscle)
- Ismael Saibari — out (syndesmosis, operated)
- Luis Díaz — out (rehab)
- Jamal Musiala — out (rehab)
- Bara Sapoko Ndiaye — out (appendicitis)
Form
Bayern top the table with 27 goals scored and 8 conceded, but drew their last game 2-2 with Dortmund. Mainz lost 3-2 at home to Bremen and then 4-1 at Elversberg, conceding seven in two games.
Context
Bayern played at Atlético Madrid in the Champions League on Tuesday, and Pavlović is available again. Kompany has been discharged from hospital with no confirmed return date to the bench. Mainz have Zentner back in goal but two suspended defenders.
What's at stake
Bayern want to keep their lead over Dortmund. Mainz need a response after two heavy defeats to stay out of the bottom half.
Betting market
No reliable current 1X2 or over/under line could be confirmed. Previews unanimously expect an away win, which agrees with the model.
From the model to the call
Model 1.20-2.67 → 1.20-2.50: -0.15 to Bayern for four missing forwards (Gnabry, Saibari, Díaz, Musiala), -0.07 for the midweek trip to Madrid, +0.05 back for Mainz's suspended defenders Posch and Mwene.