🇩🇪 TSG Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04 🇩🇪 — Prediction
Bundesliga · Matchday 9 · Sun, 08 Nov 2026, 19:30 CET · PreZero Arena, Sinsheim
Win probability
- Expected goals
- 1.45 – 1.10
- Both teams score
- 52%
Why we called it
Hoffenheim are the home side against a Schalke team that has scored four goals in eight games, but Thursday's Europa League trip to Crystal Palace keeps the margin narrow.
Full analysis
Probable line-ups
Absences
- Hajdari — out (plantar fascia)
- Wimmer — out
- De Cat — out (meniscus)
- Gendrey — out (fibula fracture)
- Hranáč — out (knee surgery)
- Coufal — doubtful (thigh)
- Conte — doubtful
- Moerstedt — doubtful (eye bruise)
- Emil Højlund — out (Achilles)
- Wöber — out (muscle)
- Gantenbein — out (muscle)
- Bachmann — out (hip)
- Siebeking — out (abdominal)
- Schallenberg — doubtful
- Gosens — doubtful (cut)
- El-Faouzi — doubtful (broken nose)
Form
Hoffenheim lost 0-2 at Bremen after beating Leverkusen 3-0, and they are 2W 2L at home. Schalke have scored in only two of eight league games and are on a three-game run without a goal (0-1 Mainz, 0-0 Köln, 0-2 Leipzig).
Context
Hoffenheim play Crystal Palace away in the Europa League on Thursday, so they get three days' rest and travel back from London. Schalke have had a full week to prepare.
What's at stake
Hoffenheim need home points to stay near the European places, and promoted Schalke are fighting to stay clear of the relegation zone.
Betting market
We could not find current odds. Hoffenheim are expected to be modest home favourites, which agrees with the model.
From the model to the call
The model had 1.55–1.13. We moved to 1.45–1.10: Hoffenheim -0.1 for the European game and travel, and Schalke's goal drought plus Højlund's absence roughly balance Hoffenheim's missing centre-backs.