🇩🇪 SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin 🇩🇪 — Prediction
Bundesliga · Matchday 9 · Sun, 08 Nov 2026, 17:30 CET · Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg
Win probability
- Expected goals
- 2.25 – 1.10
- Both teams score
- 60%
Why we called it
Freiburg are strong at home and Union are short of centre-backs (Uduokhai suspended, Markgraf and Nsoki out), which more than covers Freiburg's Thursday trip to Trabzon.
Full analysis
Probable line-ups
Absences
- Muslija — out (cruciate ligament)
- Uduokhai — suspended
- Markgraf — out (cruciate ligament)
- Nsoki — out (calf)
- Skov — doubtful
Form
Freiburg won 2-1 at Augsburg last time after losing to Bayern and Leverkusen. At home they have beaten Bremen 4-1, Gladbach 5-0 and Schalke 2-1. Union have gone three games without a win (0-0 Dortmund, 1-1 Augsburg, 1-1 Köln) and lost 0-4 at Leverkusen and 0-7 at Bayern.
Context
Freiburg play Trabzonspor away in the Conference League on Thursday, and coach Schuster is expected to rotate that night. Union have had no midweek game. Under Mauro Lustrinelli they are expected to keep their new back three.
What's at stake
Freiburg are chasing the European places again, and Union want to stay clear of the relegation zone.
Betting market
We could not find current odds. Freiburg are the natural home favourites, in line with the model.
From the model to the call
The model had 2.27–1.11 and we finish at 2.25–1.10. The travel to Turkey (-0.1) and Union's missing centre-backs (+0.1) roughly cancel out.