🇩🇪 Hamburger SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach 🇩🇪 — Prediction

Bundesliga · Matchday 9 · Fri, 06 Nov 2026, 20:30 CET · Volksparkstadion, Hamburg

Our AI call, published before kickoff

GG2–1

Tipped scorers: Terem Moffi (Hamburger SV) · Miro Muheim (Hamburger SV) · Shuto Machino (Borussia Mönchengladbach)

Win probability

39%

Hamburger SV

27%

Draw

34%

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Expected goals: 1.42 – 1.32
Both teams score: 56%

How the crowd called it

Outcome called ✓ (score off)

Final result: 3–1 · Tipped scorers hit: 1/3

Goals: Miro Muheim (Hamburger SV, 11') · Joe Scally (Borussia Mönchengladbach, 44') · Shafiq Nandja (Hamburger SV, 60') · Albert Grønbæk (Hamburger SV, 70')

Why we called it

Hamburg keep a slim home edge but come in on three straight defeats with Remberg, Vieira and Nadir out and Poulsen and Bornauw doubtful, while bottom side Gladbach are unbeaten in three under Blessin. The market (2.40 / 3.70 / 2.70) is close to a coin flip, so this is a narrow home call with goals at both ends.

Full analysis

Probable line-ups

🇩🇪 Hamburger SV

3-4-2-1: Heuer Fernandes; Nandja, Bornauw (doubtful), Omari; El Ouahdi, Sambi Lokonga, Muheim, Møller Wolfe; Adeline, Grønbæk; Moffi

🇩🇪 Borussia Mönchengladbach

3-4-2-1: Nicolas; Hashioka, Sander, Chiarodia; Scally, Uno, Neuhaus, Ullrich; Mohya, Hack; Machino (Diks and Honorat pushing to return)

Absences

🇩🇪 Hamburger SV

Nicolai Remberg — out (cruciate ligament)
Fábio Vieira — out (muscle tear)
Bilal Nadir — out (thigh)
Yussuf Poulsen — doubtful (hip)
Sebastiaan Bornauw — doubtful (head/jaw knock in the cup tie at Frankfurt)
Nicolás Capaldo — doubtful (thigh strain), could be back

🇩🇪 Borussia Mönchengladbach

Tim Kleindienst — out (expected back after the international break)
Hugo Bolin — out (muscle)
Kevin Diks — doubtful (lacking match fitness), close to a return
Franck Honorat — doubtful (muscle), close to a return

Form

Hamburg are 15th on 9 points (7 scored, 19 conceded) and have lost three in a row: 0-1 at Paderborn, then 1-3 twice to Frankfurt in the Pokal and the league. Gladbach are bottom on 4 points (11-22) but unbeaten in three: 3-2 at Stuttgart, 2-0 over Karlsruhe in the Pokal and 0-0 with Paderborn, with no goals conceded in the last two.

Context

Both sides have a normal week before this Friday night game. Hamburg are under pressure in front of their home crowd after the losing run, while Blessin's Gladbach have found some defensive solidity since he took over from Polanski.

What's at stake

A relegation six-pointer: Hamburg want to stay out of the bottom three, and Gladbach need points to climb off the foot of the table.

Betting market

Bookmakers price it at about 2.40 home, 3.70 draw and 2.70 away (roughly 39/26/35 once the margin is removed), a touch more Gladbach than the model's 42/26/32.

From the model to the call

Model 1.50-1.28 → 1.42-1.32: -0.08 to Hamburg for the losing run and attacking absences (Poulsen doubtful, Vieira and Nadir out), +0.04 to Gladbach for Bornauw's doubt at centre-back and Diks/Honorat nearing a return.