🇮🇹 Cagliari vs Frosinone 🇮🇹 — Prediction
Serie A · Matchday 11 · Sat, 07 Nov 2026, 15:00 CET · Unipol Domus, Cagliari
Win probability
- Expected goals
- 0.98 – 1.15
- Both teams score
- 43%
Why we called it
Frosinone are in form but without their top scorer Antonio Raimondo (out until December), which narrows the gap. Cagliari have lost four in a row, so the slight edge stays with the visitors.
Full analysis
Probable line-ups
Absences
- Oberta — suspended
- Felici — out (until February)
- Deiola — out
- Idrissi — out
- Faedera — out
- Antonio Raimondo — out (top scorer, until early December)
- Kone — out (until 22 Nov)
- Grillitsch — out
- Gelli — out
- Lolic — out
Form
Cagliari have lost four straight (4-0 at Monza, 0-2 v Bologna, 4-2 at Roma, 2-1 at Lazio), and Maldini has scored most of their goals. Frosinone won 5-1 against Lecce and 2-0 against Torino in their last two, scoring freely all season.
Context
No midweek fixtures for either club. Frosinone travel to Sardinia full of confidence, while Cagliari's home crowd needs a response after a month without a point.
What's at stake
Frosinone want to stay in the European places; Cagliari need points to stay clear of the bottom three.
Betting market
Cagliari 2.75, draw 3.50, Frosinone 2.50; over 2.5 at 1.57. The market agrees Frosinone are slight favourites but expects more goals than the model.
From the model to the call
Model 0.92-1.38 → 0.98-1.15: Frosinone lose about 0.25 without Raimondo, and Cagliari get a small boost because Frosinone's defence has conceded steadily.