🇮🇹 Napoli vs Lazio 🇮🇹 — Prediction

Serie A · Matchday 11 · Sun, 08 Nov 2026, 12:30 CET · Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples

Our AI call, published before kickoff

NG1–0

Tipped scorers: Rasmus Højlund (Napoli)

Win probability

39%

Napoli

30%

Draw

31%

Lazio

Expected goals: 1.17 – 1.02
Both teams score: 45%

How the crowd called it

Missed ✗

Final result: 1–1 · Tipped scorers hit: 0/1

Goals: Davide Frattesi (Lazio, 28') · Alfonso Pedraza (OG) (Napoli, 48')

Why we called it

Napoli are in crisis after three straight defeats, including 4-1 at Porto on Wednesday, and are missing Di Lorenzo, Olivera, Marianucci and Buongiorno at the back. Leaders Lazio are without Zaccagni and Gudmundsson, so home advantage only just keeps Napoli ahead in a low-scoring game.

Full analysis

Probable line-ups

🇮🇹 Napoli

3-4-3: Meret; Beukema, Rrahmani, Rafa Marín; Politano, Anguissa, De Bruyne/Gilmour, McTominay; Lang/Giovane, Højlund, Vergara

🇮🇹 Lazio

4-3-3: Mandas; Floriani Mussolini, Sutalo, Provstgaard, Nuno Tavares; Frattesi, Belahyane, Taylor; Isaksen, Noslin/Pinamonti, Zaccagni (ruled out per Sky, replacement to be decided)

Absences

🇮🇹 Napoli

Marianucci — suspended
Di Lorenzo — doubtful/likely out (adductor strain)
Olivera — doubtful/likely out (muscle strain)
De Bruyne — doubtful (mild ankle sprain)
Lobotka — out (ankle ligaments, back second half of December)
Buongiorno — out (meniscus surgery, back January)
Badiashile — out (thigh)
Spinazzola — out (hamstring)
Neres — out (thigh)
Alisson Santos — out (hamstring)
Favasuli — out (thigh)

🇮🇹 Lazio

Zaccagni — out (quadriceps)
Gudmundsson — out (shoulder dislocation, back mid-November)
Rovella — back from calf injury, available
Marusic — back from muscle injury, available

Form

Lazio lead Serie A on 28 points (9W 1D 0L, 24-8) and have won five in a row. Napoli are 8th on 14 points: they lost 1-0 at Venezia and 2-0 at Juventus in the league, then 4-1 at Porto in the Champions League.

Context

Napoli kick off at 12:30 on Sunday, less than four days after the Porto trip, and Allegri's job is reported to be under pressure. Lazio had no midweek game. Both sides then break for internationals.

What's at stake

Lazio want to stay top; Napoli need a result to stop the slide and ease the pressure on Allegri.

Betting market

Napoli 2.19, draw 3.83, Lazio 3.35; over 2.5 1.83, under 2.13. Roughly in line with the model, with a slight lean to goals.

From the model to the call

Model 1.29-0.90 → 1.17-1.02: Napoli lose a bit for the short turnaround and their poor morale, and Lazio gain a bit from Napoli's depleted defence, which more than offsets their own missing wingers.