🇮🇹 Inter vs Como 🇮🇹 — Prediction
Serie A · Matchday 11 · Sun, 08 Nov 2026, 18:00 CET · San Siro, Milan
Win probability
- Expected goals
- 1.60 – 1.38
- Both teams score
- 60%
Why we called it
Without Lautaro, Inter lose some of their edge. Como arrive in top form after a 9-1 win at Lens, with Douvikas scoring a hat-trick. Inter at home still have the slight advantage in what should be an open game.
Full analysis
Probable line-ups
Absences
- Lautaro Martínez — out (thigh flexor, back after the break)
- Luis Henrique — out (adductor)
- Stones — doubtful (flexor)
- Provedel — recovered from flu, available
- Kean — out (tibia, back end of November)
- Addai — out (muscle problem)
- Diao — out (hamstring)
- Chalobah — doubtful (leg)
- Rodríguez — out (long-term)
Form
Inter are 2nd on 25 points (8W 1D 1L, 26-13) but lost 3-1 in the derby. Como are 4th on 23 points with the joint-best defence (8 conceded) and won 9-1 at Lens in the Champions League on Wednesday.
Context
Both teams played in the Champions League midweek. Chivu needs a response after the derby; Fàbregas comes to San Siro on a high with Douvikas in form.
What's at stake
A top-four clash with two points between them: Inter want to stay in the title race, and Como want to go above them.
Betting market
Inter 1.83, draw 4.32, Como 4.21; over/under 3.5 at 2.27/1.74. The market is more bullish on Inter than the model.
From the model to the call
Model 1.76-1.42 → 1.60-1.38: Inter lose about 0.15 because Lautaro is out, and Como lose a little for Kean, Addai and Diao. Douvikas starting up front limits that drop.