🇮🇹 Genoa vs Milan 🇮🇹 — Prediction

Serie A · Matchday 11 · Sun, 08 Nov 2026, 15:00 CET · Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa

Our AI call, published before kickoff

NG0–1

Tipped scorers: Adrien Rabiot (Milan)

Win probability

23%

Genoa

28%

Draw

49%

Milan

Expected goals: 0.93 – 1.46
Both teams score: 47%

How the crowd called it

Outcome called ✓ (score off)

Final result: 1–2 · Tipped scorers hit: 0/1

Goals: Alphadjo Cissè (Milan, 13') · Christian Pulisic (Milan, 19') · Mikael Ellertsson (Genoa, 88')

Why we called it

Milan come in on the back of a 3-1 derby win, and Amorim rotated for Thursday's Europa League game to keep his first XI fresh for this one. Genoa have won four of five, which narrows the gap but doesn't close it.

Full analysis

Probable line-ups

🇮🇹 Genoa

3-5-2: Bijlow; Marcandalli, Østigård, Vásquez; Ellertsson, Frendrup, Wiafe/Meichtry, Traoré/Sow, El Shaarawy/Ehizibue; Messias/Vitinha, Osmajić

🇮🇹 Milan

4-3-3: Maignan; Gila, De Winter, Pavlović, Diawara/Bartesaghi; Musah, Modrić, Rabiot; Moreira, Gonçalo Ramos, Pulisic

Absences

🇮🇹 Genoa

Venturino — out (patellar tendon surgery, back second half of November)
Havel — out (ankle, back mid-November)

🇮🇹 Milan

Tomori — out (thigh, back end of November)
Gabbia — out (thigh tendon, back early 2027)
Loftus-Cheek — out (thigh)
Saelemaekers — out (ankle surgery)
Chukwueze — out (hip surgery)

Form

Genoa have won four of their last five, including 2-0 against Juventus, and sit 11th on 13 points. Milan are 5th on 21 points (6W 3D 1L, 21-12) and beat Inter 3-1 in the derby; Rabiot has five goals and three assists.

Context

Milan host Ferencváros in the Europa League on Thursday with a rotated side (Torriani in for the suspended Maignan, Modrić rested) and then have under three days before this one. Milan's away fans are barred from the Ferraris, and Tomori and Gabbia being out leaves little cover at centre-back.

What's at stake

Milan want to stay in touch with the top four; Genoa want to keep their run going and climb into the top half.

Betting market

Genoa 4.83, draw 3.73, Milan 1.85; over 2.5 2.16, under 1.81. The market agrees with the model: a Milan win in a fairly tight game.

From the model to the call

Model 0.88-1.51 → 0.93-1.46: a small move for Genoa's form and home crowd, and for Milan's Thursday game and missing centre-backs.