🇮🇹 Monza vs Atalanta 🇮🇹 — Prediction

Serie A · Matchday 11 · Sun, 08 Nov 2026, 15:00 CET · U-Power Stadium, Monza

Our AI call, published before kickoff

GG1–2

Tipped scorers: Gustavo Varela (Monza) · Nikola Krstović (Atalanta) · Charles De Ketelaere (Atalanta)

Win probability

30%

Monza

26%

Draw

44%

Atalanta

Expected goals: 1.30 – 1.62
Both teams score: 59%

How the crowd called it

Outcome called ✓ (score off)

Final result: 0–1 · Tipped scorers hit: 1/3

Goals: Nikola Krstovic (Atalanta, 49')

Why we called it

Atalanta still have more quality, but they are winless in five, have a long injury list (Scamacca, Raspadori, Hien, Kossounou) and play Kairat in the Conference League on Thursday. Monza's league top scorer Varela should find a way past a weakened defence.

Full analysis

Probable line-ups

🇮🇹 Monza

3-4-2-1: Törnqvist; Kouadio, Goglichidze, Lucchesi; Birindelli, Colombo/Akinsanmiro, Foe Ondoa, Mangas; Robinson/Zeballos, Mota/Ngonge; Varela

🇮🇹 Atalanta

4-2-3-1: Carnesecchi; Zappacosta, Scalvini, Obrić, Bernasconi; Pašalić, Ederson; Zalewski, De Ketelaere, Rowe/Elmas; Krstović

Absences

🇮🇹 Monza

Ngonge — doubtful (muscle problem)
Folorunsho — doubtful (calf)
Pessina — out (kneecap, back end of November)
Ziolkowski — out (plantar fasciitis)
Maye — out (muscle discomfort)

🇮🇹 Atalanta

Scamacca — out (thigh flexor)
Raspadori — out (hamstring, back second half of November)
Hien — out (muscle injury)
Kossounou — out (hamstring)
Kessié — out (calf)
Bellanova — out (adductor)
Kristensen — out (hamstring)
Gaetano — out (adductor)
Pompei — out (finger fracture)
Kolašinac — doubtful (thigh, close to a return)

Form

Monza are 18th on 7 points (2W 1D 7L, 17-24), but Varela leads the league with nine goals. Atalanta are 13th on 11 points (16-20) and have gone five without a win, the last a heavy home defeat to Parma.

Context

Atalanta host Kairat in the Conference League on Thursday, then go away on Sunday. Sarri, in his first season at Atalanta, has spoken of the team's 'emotional fragility'. Juric's Monza see a wounded Atalanta in a Lombardy derby.

What's at stake

Monza need points to get out of the bottom three; Atalanta need a win to stop their crisis.

Betting market

Monza 3.44, draw 4.01, Atalanta 2.10; over 2.5 1.63. The market agrees with the model on an Atalanta lean and expects goals.

From the model to the call

Model 1.25-1.80 → 1.30-1.62: Atalanta come down for Thursday's game, the missing Scamacca and Raspadori and their slump, and Monza go up slightly because Hien and Kossounou are out.