🇮🇹 Fiorentina vs Juventus 🇮🇹 — Prediction
Serie A · Matchday 11 · Sun, 08 Nov 2026, 20:45 CET · Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence
Win probability
- Expected goals
- 0.95 – 1.45
- Both teams score
- 48%
Why we called it
Juventus are without Yildiz, Thuram, Locatelli and Conceição, have scored only 13 in ten, and play away at AZ midweek. But their defence (10 conceded) is far sounder than Fiorentina's, so a narrow away win is the call.
Full analysis
Probable line-ups
Absences
- Pongracic — out (hamstring, back end of November)
- Ranieri — doubtful (foot)
- Atta — out (abdominal overload)
- Parisi — out (ACL)
- Yildiz — out (foot surgery, back early December)
- Thuram — out (knee surgery, back early 2027)
- Locatelli — out (meniscus surgery, back 2027)
- Conceição — out (shoulder dislocation)
- Nico González — out (soleus)
- Celik — out (hamstring)
- Grabara — out (ACL)
- McKennie — doubtful (adductor)
Form
Fiorentina are 16th on 8 points (2W 2D 6L, 15-23) after a 4-2 win at Sassuolo. Juventus are 7th on 17 points (13-10) and beat Napoli 2-0 last time out. Fiorentina won the last meeting 2-0 in May 2026.
Context
Spalletti's Juventus play away at AZ Alkmaar in the Champions League before the trip to Florence, with almost no options because of injuries. Vanoli's Fiorentina have had a full week to prepare and a big home night after their first real win.
What's at stake
Juventus want to get back to the European places; Fiorentina need points to get away from the relegation zone.
Betting market
Fiorentina 3.71, draw 3.71, Juventus 2.10; over 2.5 1.84, under 2.12. The market rates Juventus lower than the model's 56%.
From the model to the call
Model 0.89-1.69 → 0.95-1.45: Juventus drop for the absences of Yildiz, Conceição, Thuram and Locatelli and the midweek trip to the Netherlands, in line with the market. Fiorentina go up slightly for home advantage and the market view; Pongracic being out and Ranieri doubtful in their own defence stop Juventus dropping further.