🇮🇹 Parma vs Bologna 🇮🇹 — Prediction

Serie A · Matchday 11 · Sat, 07 Nov 2026, 18:00 CET · Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma

Our AI call, published before kickoff

NG0–1

Tipped scorers: Federico Bernardeschi (Bologna)

Win probability

26%

Parma

31%

Draw

43%

Bologna

Expected goals: 0.85 – 1.17
Both teams score: 40%

How the crowd called it

Outcome called ✓ (score off)

Final result: 1–2 · Tipped scorers hit: 0/1

Goals: Arthur Theate (Bologna, 53') · Riccardo Orsolini (Bologna, 72') · Vincent Sierro (Parma, 81')

Why we called it

Bologna come in on three straight wins, including 4-2 at Milan, and the market rates them clearly above Parma. Parma's attack is among the weakest in the league, which points to a tight, low-scoring away win.

Full analysis

Probable line-ups

🇮🇹 Parma

3-5-2: Daffara; Del Prato, Britschgi, Diego Carlos; Valeri, Keita, Fabbian, Sierro, Troilo; Lontani, Touré

🇮🇹 Bologna

4-3-3: Skorupski; Darmian, Casale, Miranda, Theate; Ferguson, Pobega, Zortea; Bernardeschi, Cambiaghi, Mbangula

Absences

🇮🇹 Parma

Bernabé — out
Valentin — out
Drobnic — out

🇮🇹 Bologna

Piccoli — doubtful (back from injury)
Holm — out (until January)
De Silvestri — out
Enem — out

Form

Bologna have won three in a row (Milan 4-2 away, Monza 2-1) after losing at home to Inter. Parma won 3-0 at Atalanta last time but have scored only 8 in their last nine league games, and they drew 0-0 with Udinese before that.

Context

This is the Emilia derby. Parma's confidence is up after Bergamo, and Bologna arrive with momentum and the stronger squad.

What's at stake

Bologna are chasing a European place; Parma want to climb clear of the relegation zone.

Betting market

Parma 4.75, draw 3.50, Bologna 1.80; under 2.5 at 1.72. The market leans further towards Bologna than the model's 40% and agrees on a low-scoring game.

From the model to the call

Model 0.85-1.09 → 0.85-1.17: a small lift for Bologna's form and the market's clear lean.