🇮🇹 Torino vs Lecce 🇮🇹 — Prediction
Serie A · Matchday 11 · Sat, 07 Nov 2026, 15:00 CET · Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Turin
Win probability
- Expected goals
- 1.45 – 0.92
- Both teams score
- 47%
Why we called it
Lecce arrive on a bad run (beaten 5-1 at Frosinone and at home by Genoa) and are without Coulibaly, Pierotti and Berisha. Torino are the stronger home side even after two defeats in a row, and the market backs them more than the model does.
Full analysis
Probable line-ups
Absences
- Israel — out (until early December)
- Rolando Mandragora — out
- Cacciamani — out
- Fortini — out
- Rodriguez — out
- Coulibaly — out
- Pierotti — out (until December)
- Berisha — out
- Ilic — out (until 9 Nov)
- Monteiro — out
- Penev — out
- Geubbels — out
Form
Torino won three straight (Udinese, Parma 3-0 away, Monza 3-2) and then lost 3-1 at home to Como and 2-0 at Frosinone. Lecce have lost three of their last four league games, conceding 5 at Frosinone and losing 2-1 at home to Genoa last time.
Context
No midweek cups for either side. Torino want to stop a two-game losing run in front of their own fans, and Lecce's confidence is low after two heavy weeks.
What's at stake
Torino want to get back into the top half; Lecce are being pulled into the relegation fight.
Betting market
Torino 1.75, draw 3.60, Lecce 5.00; over/under 2.5 both at 1.90. The market rates Torino higher than the model's 44%.
From the model to the call
Model 1.38-1.02 → 1.45-0.92: Lecce lose some attack without Coulibaly and Pierotti, and their poor form plus the market's lean push Torino up slightly.