🇮🇹 Venezia vs Udinese 🇮🇹 — Prediction
Serie A · Matchday 11 · Fri, 06 Nov 2026, 20:45 CET · Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Venice
Win probability
- Expected goals
- 1.30 – 2.05
- Both teams score
- 64%
Why we called it
The model already makes Udinese clear favourites, and Paolo Zanetti's first game in charge adds a small lift. But a defence without Solet, Alaba and Zanoli that just shipped five to Roma should let bottom-placed Venezia score.
Full analysis
Probable line-ups
Absences
- Franjić — out (shoulder surgery, back in December)
- Thierry Correia — doubtful (muscle problem)
- Sverko — out (hip problems)
- Adorante — out (recovering from back surgery)
- Juan Jesus — doubtful (went down injured against Como)
- Busio, Bella-Kotchap — back from injury
- Solet — doubtful (muscle problem, missed Roma)
- Alaba — out (calf strain)
- Zanoli — out (muscle relapse)
- Gueye — out (ankle surgery)
- Bayo — out (hamstring)
- Piotrowski, Zaniolo — back from injury
Form
Venezia are bottom of the table after a 1-0 defeat at Como, where Da Cunha scored a penalty and Venezia had a penalty of their own overturned by VAR. They have scored only six league goals. Udinese lost 5-2 at home to Roma (Zaniolo and Palma scored) and are winless in eight, with one point from their last seven games.
Context
Udinese sacked Kosta Runjaic on 2 November and appointed Paolo Zanetti, who makes his debut here after only a few training sessions. Davide Nicola has only recently taken over at Venezia. Both sides have had a normal five or six days' rest.
What's at stake
A straight relegation six-pointer: Venezia are last and Udinese are 17th, both looking for a first win in weeks.
Betting market
I couldn't find current 1X2 or over/under 2.5 odds from a reliable source, so there is no market check against the model.
From the model to the call
Model 1.17-1.98 → 1.30-2.05: Venezia up for Udinese's depleted back line (Solet, Alaba and Zanoli out) and a shaky Okoye, Udinese up slightly for the new-coach bounce.